Australian beef exporters gain from reduced US cattle numbers

The decline in US cattle slaughter in 2025 has created new opportunities for Australian beef exporters. With US cattle slaughter falling by 6.4% to 29.3 million head, the lowest since 2015, Australian producers are poised to fill the gap in the market.

Background

The US cattle herd has been in a technical destock phase since 2019, leading to a significant reduction in herd size. This trend has resulted in a 13% decrease in slaughter numbers since 2022. The decline in cow slaughter, which fell by 11% to just under 5 million, marks the lowest figure since 2005. Similarly, heifer and steer slaughter numbers have decreased by 7% each, affecting the availability of 'fed beef' in the US market.

Market Implications

The reduction in US cattle numbers has opened up opportunities for Australian beef exports, particularly in the grainfed beef segment. With lower domestic production of lean, manufacturing beef in the US, Australian exporters can introduce their products to American consumers, highlighting the unique qualities of Australian beef. This situation is further supported by the record-high carcass weights in the US, which, despite mitigating the overall production decline to 3.6%, still represent the lowest production volume since 2016.

Future Outlook

Looking forward, the US cattle herd is unlikely to see substantial growth until significant rebuilding occurs. The female slaughter rate, ending 2025 at 48.8%, remains above the typical baseline, indicating ongoing destocking. This continued trend suggests that Australian beef exporters will have sustained opportunities in the US market as domestic production struggles to rebound.

Overall, the decline in US cattle slaughter presents a strategic advantage for Australian beef producers, who can capitalise on the reduced competition and growing demand for imported beef in the United States.

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