Tight supplies and export demand support strong market conditions

The UK red meat sector has maintained stable prices despite facing mixed market conditions, according to Quality Meat Scotland (QMS). Farmgate prices for beef, sheep, and pigs have remained robust through September and into October, driven by tight supplies and resilient demand.

Beef Market

Prime cattle prices have remained firm, despite a seasonal increase in slaughter rates. Although current prices are about 9% lower than their peak in spring, they are still approximately 25% higher than the same period last year. This price stability is attributed to lower production levels anticipated in 2025. Cow prices have also shown strength, remaining significantly above last year's levels, indicating a shift in consumer demand towards more affordable beef products due to inflation. The UK's overall beef production has decreased, with a notable drop in prime cattle slaughter and a reduction in imports from the EU.

Sheep Market

Lamb prices have stabilised, with auction prices in Scotland averaging around £3/kg (EUR 3.44), which is 5–10% higher than last year. Despite a slight dip at the start of October, prices remain robust due to a smaller lamb crop and a decline in slaughter numbers. Rising lamb prices in the Southern Hemisphere have increased UK import costs, potentially enhancing the competitiveness of UK lamb in the global market.

Pig Market

Pig prices have followed a typical seasonal trend, slightly easing from summer highs. Despite this, prices are still above the five-year average, bolstered by strong market demand and increased export opportunities, particularly to China. UK pig production saw a slight increase in September, although overall market supply has decreased due to subdued EU imports.

Economic Context

The economic backdrop remains challenging, with stable energy prices but ongoing high costs for gas and fertilisers. While wage growth has surpassed inflation, rising food prices have impacted retail sales volumes of red meat. Nonetheless, tight supplies and firm export demand continue to support the UK red meat sector as the year progresses.

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