Australian and New Zealand lamb prices show contrasting trends

Lamb prices in Australia and New Zealand have shown notable fluctuations in June, driven by varying supply and demand dynamics. While Australia's lamb prices remained relatively stable, New Zealand experienced a significant increase.

Market Overview

As of June 25, the Australian lamb price was recorded at AUD 9,821 per metric ton (EUR 5,507), reflecting a marginal month-on-month decrease of 0.01%. However, this represents a substantial year-on-year increase of 38.7%. The initial decline in prices at the start of the month was countered by a recovery due to heightened demand and a reduced supply. By the end of June, prices began to ease again as the quality of lamb declined and buyers became more selective. Meanwhile, the sheep slaughter rate in Australia decreased by approximately 8.1% compared to the previous year.

In contrast, New Zealand's lamb price surged to NZD 9,529 per metric ton (EUR 4,795), marking an 8% month-on-month increase and a 47.5% rise year-on-year. This sharp increase is attributed to a continued seasonal decline in supply, which has underperformed compared to 2024. The New Zealand Meat Board reported a 26.9% year-on-year decline in production as of May 2025, with slaughter rates in early June dropping by 13.2% year-on-year.

Market Implications

The fluctuations in lamb prices have significant implications for the market. In Australia, the stability of prices despite initial declines suggests a resilient demand, although the easing of prices towards the end of the month indicates potential challenges in maintaining quality. In New Zealand, the rising prices reflect a tighter supply situation, which could impact export competitiveness, especially as the New Zealand dollar strengthens against the US dollar, making exports less attractive to foreign buyers.

Additional Factors

Other factors influencing the market include changes in logistics and energy prices. The cost of shipping containers rose by 46% month-on-month in June, although this was marked by volatility as carriers adjusted capacities. Additionally, the Brent crude oil price increased by 10% month-on-month, adding further complexity to the logistics and transportation costs.

Overall, the lamb market is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, demand fluctuations, and external economic factors, which will require careful monitoring by stakeholders.

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