Imports could lead to a 10-15% drop in meat prices

Russia is witnessing a significant increase in poultry imports from China, raising concerns among domestic producers about potential impacts on the local market. In 2025, Russia imported a total of 327,400 tonnes of poultry meat, marking a 4.3% rise from the previous year. Notably, imports from China alone accounted for approximately 110,000 tonnes, with shipments increasing substantially towards the end of the year.

Background and Context

The surge in poultry imports is largely attributed to the appreciation of the Russian ruble, which strengthened by nearly 40% in 2025. This currency shift has made foreign meat supplies more affordable for Russian buyers, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese poultry products in the domestic market. Consequently, industry representatives have expressed concerns about the pressure these imports are exerting on local broiler meat and pork prices.

Market Implications

The influx of Chinese poultry is expected to have significant implications for the Russian meat market. According to Yuri Kovalev, general director of the Russian Union of Pork Producers, if the current import trend persists, Russia might import between 200,000 and 250,000 tonnes of lean poultry fillet in 2026. This volume is equivalent to about half a million tonnes of pork in terms of lean content and live weight. Such a development could lead to a 10-15% decrease in poultry and pork prices, potentially putting financial pressure on local producers.

Industry Concerns

While the overall increase in poultry imports remains moderate, the rapid growth of imports from China has become a sensitive issue for the sector. Galina Bobyleva, chairman of the Russian National Poultry Union, highlighted that although the current situation is manageable, the pace and scale of growth warrant close monitoring. Despite these challenges, Russia continues to be a net exporter of poultry to China, with exports valued at $445.6 million (EUR 376.4) in 2025, a 3.6% increase from the previous year.

In conclusion, the evolving trade dynamics between Russia and China present both opportunities and challenges for the Russian poultry sector. As the market adjusts to these changes, industry stakeholders are advised to remain vigilant and responsive to potential shifts in trade and pricing.

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