Farmgate values near 12.40 zloty as EU cattle numbers keep falling

Beef procurement prices in Poland have been declining since the start of 2026, according to an Agroskop analysis published by Erste Bank. Current farmgate values are around 12.40 zloty (EUR 2.83) per kilogram. Despite that correction, the bank judges the market’s underlying conditions to remain relatively constructive, mainly because European beef production is contracting and the cattle herd is shrinking.

Tighter EU supply underpins prices

European Union figures show that beef production fell in 2025 and is expected to recede by a further 2.2% in 2026. The main reason is a smaller cattle population, and that decline may continue into 2027. Reduced availability of animals can support prices. Even after the fall recorded from the beginning of the year, Polish procurement levels are still described as comparatively high.

Mercosur trade lifts import pressure

At the same time, beef imports into the European Union are projected to increase by about 12%, chiefly from Mercosur countries. Price-competitive meat from Brazil and Australia represents a significant challenge for European producers. The first months of the Mercosur agreement have not yet had a negative impact on the European market. Parallel negotiations on trade agreements with Mexico and India are under way, but their full implementation will still require time.

Polish exporters target overseas buyers

Polish beef is well recognised on foreign markets, a factor that Erste highlights as a structural strength for the national industry. The bank lists China, Vietnam, Algeria and Turkey among important sales destinations. South Korea and Japan are also cited as open markets of interest. Remaining competitive on those international routes and capturing overseas demand will stay essential for Polish processors and exporters.

Lower feed costs aid farm profitability

Feed market conditions are helping producers. Average feed prices in 2026 remain lower than in 2025 and 2024. Erste notes that relatively high cattle prices together with stable feed costs could, in future, help slow or halt the decline in the cattle herd. For the time being, however, animal numbers are still falling. Price competition from suppliers outside the EU is the principal challenge facing European producers. Poland’s established position in overseas beef markets remains an additional advantage for the domestic sector.

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