Rabobank predicts a decline in output amid health challenges

The global pork industry is set to undergo a significant adjustment in 2026, according to Rabobank's latest quarterly report. This shift is expected to be marked by a decline in production during the latter half of the year, influenced by ongoing health challenges, evolving trade policies, and a heightened focus on productivity and efficiency.

Production Dynamics

Rabobank's analysis anticipates a mixed performance in global pork production. The first half of 2026 is likely to maintain high supply levels in major producing countries. However, a contraction is expected in the second half, primarily driven by reductions in the sow herd in China and adjustments in Europe. In China, the breeding sow stock is projected to decrease to approximately 39 million head by 2026, as part of efforts to balance supply and demand following a period of overproduction. Meanwhile, in the United States and European Union, growth in the sow herd will remain limited due to health pressures and high expansion costs.

Trade and Market Implications

International trade patterns are also expected to shift. China's share of global imports has decreased significantly as its domestic production recovers, while Mexico has emerged as the largest importer. Trade dynamics are further complicated by China's antidumping measures against European pork and Mexico's introduction of quotas for suppliers without free trade agreements. These factors could redirect trade flows to new destinations, adding uncertainty to the market.

Demand Outlook

Despite these challenges, Rabobank forecasts stable global consumption of pork, bolstered by its competitive pricing compared to other proteins, particularly beef. However, growth is expected to be moderate and uneven across regions, influenced by economic conditions and consumer confidence. The industry will need to exercise greater production discipline and strategic risk management to maintain its international competitiveness.

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