Producers focus on productivity amid health and trade challenges

The global pork industry is navigating a complex landscape of market shifts, driven by health issues, trade challenges, and strategic production adjustments. According to a recent RaboResearch report, these factors are influencing the industry's trajectory through 2026.

Market Context

Producers are prioritising productivity and efficiency to maintain profitability in the face of limited herd growth. The global sow herd is projected to decline by 2026, with China reducing its sow herd by one million, resulting in a 1% global decrease. Conversely, Brazil is expanding its herd, capitalising on strong margins and increasing export demand. Trade activity has risen by 3% year-over-year, with Brazil's market share expected to grow from 12% to 15% by 2025.

Health and Trade Challenges

Disease remains a significant concern for the industry, with African swine fever (ASF) impacting production in Vietnam and parts of Europe. Other health issues like PRRSv and foot-and-mouth disease are affecting herds in North America and Europe. Geopolitical tensions are also creating instability, particularly for the U.S. and European Union, which face trade barriers in key markets such as China.

Market Implications

Despite these challenges, pork prices remain strong, driven by demand exceeding supply in most regions. The EU and North America have seen price increases of 10% and 21%, respectively. However, China's prices have decreased by 42% due to improved production efficiency. While inflation poses a potential risk to demand, the limited availability of beef and poultry is expected to support pork consumption through 2026.

The industry is increasingly prioritising productivity enhancements, herd health, and optimising carcass weights to counterbalance limited herd growth.

Christine McCracken, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at RaboResearch

Overall, the global pork industry is focusing on strategic adjustments to navigate the current market dynamics, with an emphasis on maintaining profitability amid ongoing challenges.

Source