Sep 5, 2025
Tariffs and sanctions reshape supply chains, affecting prices
The global seafood industry is facing unprecedented challenges as geopolitical tensions and trade interventions disrupt traditional supply chains. According to recent reports, these developments are causing significant upheaval in the trade of key seafood products such as Shrimp, Salmon, Tilapia, Pangasius, and Groundfish.
Background and Context
Rabobank's research highlights that escalating trade disputes and geopolitical tensions are severely impacting the seafood industry. Long-established supply chains are being disrupted by tariffs, sanctions, and shifting alliances, particularly affecting producers and exporters in Asia. The U.S. and European consumers are experiencing higher prices and reduced availability of seafood staples, as the industry navigates what Rabobank describes as a perfect storm of trade barriers and supply chain fragility.
Market Implications
The implications for the market are profound. In the U.S., tariffs of up to 50% on shrimp from Asian exporters, especially those in India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, are likely to result in decreased consumption. The salmon industry is also under threat, with potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian salmon slowing investment and raising concerns about supply and pricing. Freshwater species like Tilapia and Pangasius are similarly pressured, with Chinese Tilapia facing a 75% tariff in the U.S., effectively pricing it out of reach for American buyers.
Groundfish markets are not spared either, as sanctions and tariffs on Russian-origin fish have led to price inflation and supply chain disruptions. The European Union and the U.K. have imposed tariffs, while the U.S. has enacted a full ban, causing a ripple effect across global markets.
Outlook and Strategies
The outlook for the seafood industry remains uncertain. Rabobank suggests that strategic diversification in sourcing and market access is essential to navigate these turbulent times.
Strategic diversification is no longer optional. It’s essential.
Gorjan Nikolik, Senior Global Specialist for Seafood
However, such strategies are challenging in a cost-sensitive sector. While some markets may eventually stabilise, the industry is expected to endure a prolonged period of instability.