Irish lamb prices diverge, influenced by increased production and supply

The European lamb market is experiencing a complex dynamic as declining production supports prices across the continent, according to recent analysis by AHDB. However, the situation in Ireland presents a contrasting trend with prices under pressure due to increased production.

Production Decline and Price Support

In 2023, EU lamb production is forecasted to decline by 1.2% year-on-year, primarily due to reductions in flock sizes in key producing countries such as France and Spain. This decline has contributed to maintaining higher lamb prices in these regions, with France and Spain recording prices of €855.00/100kg and €724.70/100kg respectively, marking significant year-on-year increases.

Irish Market Divergence

Contrary to the broader EU trend, Irish lamb prices have been lower, with a 6.1% year-on-year decrease as of early April. This is attributed to a 4.0% increase in production year-to-date, which, coupled with reduced demand, has exerted downward pressure on prices. Despite this, Ireland has seen a rise in exports to the EU, driven by its competitive pricing.

UK Market Trends

The UK market has also faced lower prices influenced by seasonal trends and reduced demand. However, a shift occurred in March as prices began to rise in anticipation of religious festivals such as Ramadan and Easter. The competitive pricing of UK lamb has led to increased exports to the EU, particularly to France, where demand has surged.

Future Outlook

The European Commission anticipates an increase in imports to the EU to balance high domestic prices, potentially easing seasonal pressures on UK prices. The relationship between GB and EU prices remains crucial for export competitiveness, especially as the UK positions itself as a net exporter of sheep meat.

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